During the first couple of months of 2011 the top-level pool of available IPv4 addresses held by the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) will be exhausted, putting us in the latter days of (relatively!) easy IPv4 availability. Once the IANA pool is empty, the Regional Internet Registries (RIRs) will deplete their own pools in the months following until each only has a single “/8″ left. Allocations from that space will only be of a minimal size, and each Internet Service Provider (ISP, also called a Local Internet Registry (LIR) for allocation purposes) will only receive a single allocation from it.
LIR’s own pools will run on a little longer still, but how long will depend on the growth rate of each LIR/ISP. At the current assignment rate within the JANET community we can expect JANET(UK)’s own pool to last a few years, but that rate may change as demand changes, and may also change based on the policies we have to comply with. Previously sites have been able to justify address requests based on the planned usage two years out from the request. At the moment addresses are assigned based on a justification looking six months ahead. By the first of July, this will be brought down to looking three months ahead in accordance with rules set by the community of our own RIR, RIPE.
IPv6 is the long-term solution to IPv4 exhaustion, and JANET has been offering IPv6 services for over a decade to encourage our community to adopt it, but as with the rest of the industry, uptake has been slow. Originally it was envisioned that by the time IPv4 exhaustion came around, IPv6 would be widely enough adopted that it would not matter. Now, this is not to be the case. IPv4 will be exhausted, but there will still be a large number of internet-connected hosts without functioning IPv6.
What will this mean? Many universities are lucky enough to have large assignments of IPv4 space from systems that pre-dated the RIRs. They may be able to continue to grow and provide new services using this space. Many smaller institutions are already using Network Address Translation (NAT) and are largely independent of the requirements for public addresses. However, services that are available to other sites and data-centres hosted off-site require public addresses to be reachable. In the medium term it may be possible to NAT IPv4 to a small range of public addresses and use native IPv6 in dual-stack mode, but there still may be a gap between the last IPv4 address being handed out and a site’s ability to deploy IPv6 ubiquitously.
There is little we can do to stop this, but perhaps there are ways to ease it. Sites that have more addresses than they need could, if they are using JANET-assigned space, hand it back to our registry so it can be used elsewhere. Can we do something with sites that have large amount of pre-RIR address space? The “/16s” that used to be called “class B” space? Perhaps use JANET as a broker within the community? None of this is without other implications, of course. Perhaps meaning renumbering to free up space, or advertising more specific prefixes. The latter can be restricted to JANET if the community co-operates, otherwise it means yet more entries in the global routing table.
Whilst I’m on the topic of the pre-RIR address space, some of it does not appear to have the correct registration details. RIRs have already started hunting around for address space, and this may be one of the clues they use to investigate further. If you have address space obtained before the RIRs were in existence, then please check its registration details in the RIPE whois database.
whois -h whois.ripe.net <network number>
E.g.
whois -h whois.ripe.net 128.86.0.0
If the output mentions “locked” or has the output from both ARIN and RIPE in it, then it would be worthwhile updating the information. You can do this yourself, or JANET(UK) can assist if you drop a request to the JANET Service Desk.
Adoption of IPv6 needs to happen to allow the Internet to scale as it needs to, with each individual having many devices that require Internet access, but there is still this gap to bridge until IPv6 is as available as it needs to be. Transition mechanisms that translate between IPv4 and IPv6 are just that — transition mechanisms. IPv6 is the goal, but we may need to work together as a community to get there, and I’d welcome some discussion on what we can do to co-ordinate this, either through comments on this blog, or perhaps on a suitable mailing list.
<ipv6-users@jiscmail.ac.uk> may be a good choice for IPv6 deployment, and I might suggest resuscitating <ntlg@jiscmail.ac.uk> for IPv4 exhaustion discussions.
https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?A0=ipv6-users
https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?A0=ntlg
As an aside, the Internet Society (ISOC) is arranging a “World IPv6 Day” for June 8th. The idea behind this is that as many service providers as possible enable IPv6 on their public-facing website (keeping IPv4 enabled too of course!), then monitor it to see if any of the feared problems arise. More details are at the URL below, but if your site isn’t IPv6-enabled, perhaps you could give it a go?
http://isoc.org/wp/worldipv6day/
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News by Rob Evans